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Crypto

Bitcoin Breakout Faces Its First Test After a 27% Three-Week Surge

· Investing.com UK Crypto Analysis

Solana Holds Above $94 After Best Week in Two Months as $100 Resistance Looms

Solana (SOL) traded above $94 on Monday, holding gains after a 27% surge last week that marked the token's strongest performance in two months. The rally pushed SOL to its highest level since late June, with the $100 psychological barrier now emerging as the key test for whether the recovery can extend.

The advance came as institutional investors poured money into Solana-focused exchange-traded funds. According to CoinGlass data, these ETFs attracted a combined $28.34 million in net inflows across four consecutive trading sessions last week, the largest weekly total since June. The timing aligned closely with SOL's rapid rebound from around $75 to above $94.

Sustained institutional buying could provide additional fuel for further gains. However, analysts cautioned that a single week of positive flows does not establish a durable trend, and market participants are closely watching whether demand persists following the sharp run-up.

Network governance emerged as another catalyst. Solana validators opened voting Monday on three formal proposals, with the process scheduled to conclude Thursday at the end of epoch 1023, around 15:30 UTC. The proposals carry significant implications for the network's future.

SGP-0001 would formally adopt the Solana Constitution, establishing a governance framework for protocol decision-making. SGP-0002 proposes doubling the network's disinflation rate from 15% to 30%, which would accelerate the decline in token inflation without reducing current supply. SolanaFloor estimated the measure could remove roughly 18.9 million SOL, valued near $1.7 billion, from scheduled emissions over six years.

SGP-0003 targets transaction fee mechanics. It would introduce a fixed base fee paid to block leaders plus a resource component tied to computational demands. The resource portion would be burned, reducing circulating supply. SolanaFloor projected the change could lift daily SOL burning from approximately 648 tokens to around 9,000, contingent on validator approval and subsequent network activity.

Regulatory developments also contributed to the broader crypto recovery. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission proposed a new framework called Regulation Crypto Assets on Aug. 18, outlining clearer pathways for crypto companies to raise capital under federal securities laws. The proposal does not eliminate all regulatory risk for Solana, but it reduced some uncertainty around how securities rules might apply to functional blockchain networks. Public comments remain open through Oct. 20.

Bitcoin and crypto-linked U.S. stocks also advanced after the Treasury expanded its long-duration debt buybacks and President Donald Trump renewed his push for the CLARITY Act.

Solana's tokenized real-world asset market provided another layer of support. Data from RWA.xyz showed the value of tokenized assets on the network crossed $4 billion for the first time, with holder counts reaching approximately 348,489.

Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. SOL remains above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $79.04 and the 200-day EMA at $92.67, both signaling positive momentum. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index stands near 64, approaching overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence has flipped bearish on the 4-hour chart, with the MACD line falling below its signal line. That crossover suggests consolidation or a retest of support may precede any further breakout.

Immediate resistance sits between $97.68 and $98.44, a zone SOL tested during the rally but failed to hold. Above that lies the psychological $100 level, followed by the Aug. 22 wick at $102.88. A convincing daily close above $100 is widely viewed as confirmation of a sustained recovery, potentially opening the path toward $112.52, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension from the recent swing low.

On the downside, the first support rests near $94.58. A close below that level would expose the $92.50 to $93.25 area, followed by $88.06. A deeper decline toward $83.49 would become relevant if sellers reverse the breakout, while a move below $78.91 would materially weaken the bullish structure.

Liquidation data from CoinGlass shows the largest nearby concentration of leveraged positions around $96.20 to $96.40. A push above $96 could force short positions to close, potentially helping SOL retest the resistance zone. Below the market, liquidation clusters appear near $93 and between $91.50 and $92, suggesting a rejection under $94 could accelerate a move toward those lower pools.

Crypto analyst Haris identified the $98 to $102 area as the main resistance zone after SOL's latest rejection, noting the token has tested that range multiple times. He said he is not shorting yet, preferring to watch price action first, and flagged a break below $85 as a signal that would weaken the setup.

The governance vote may provide the next Solana-specific catalyst. Approval of SGP-0002 would reduce future token issuance faster, while SGP-0003 could increase SOL burned through network fees. Rejection would preserve existing emission and fee structures. For U.S. investors, the SEC proposal remains the larger policy event, with the recent rally reflecting expectations rather than a completed regulatory change.

SOL's ability to hold above $94.58 while momentum resets will determine whether the move becomes a sustained breakout. A daily close above $98.44 would strengthen the bullish case toward $102.88, while a loss of $88.06 would raise the risk that the rally is unwinding.

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