Lawmakers elected to Congress in 2026 are likely to be tasked with shoring up Social Security ahead of its looming 2032 funding shortfall, and that effort could be affected by the outcome of a Connecticut primary race.
Democratic Rep. John Larson, the ranking member of the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Social Security, who has called for expanding Social Security benefits, won't be on the November ballot.
On Tuesday, voters in Connecticut's 1st Congressional District chose among the incumbent Larson and several challengers. Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin won, with around 54% of the district's vote, compared with 33% for Larson, according to MS NOW, based on 99% of votes.
In a speech Tuesday night, Larson — who has served 14 terms in the House of Representatives — said he is "disappointed" with the primary results.
"But far from disheartened — we have a responsibility and a job to do, and we've got to come together as people, as a Democratic Party and fight for what's right for the American people," Larson said.
Larson previously served as a chair of the Social Security subcommittee, when Democrats controlled the House. For years, Larson has advocated for a bill, the Social Security 2100 Act, which aims to expand benefits while also extending the program's solvency.
Larson reintroduced the Social Security 2100 Act on June 26. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., put forward a version of the bill in the Senate on July 21.
The Social Security 2100 Act calls for some benefit increases that would be in effect through 2036. Among those proposed changes are an across-the-board benefit increase, a change to how the annual cost-of-living adjustment is calculated, and an increase in the minimum benefit for long-term low earners.
To pay for those changes, the bill calls for eliminating the Social Security payroll tax cap and taxing investment income for taxpayers who earn over $400,000. In 2026, the Social Security payroll tax cap is set at $184,500. Earnings above that limit are not subject to the 6.2% payroll tax for workers and employers.
The re-upped proposal comes as the Social Security trust fund that helps pay retirement benefits is projected to run out in about six years, in the fourth quarter of 2032, according to Social Security trustees' latest projections. At that time, 78% of those benefits would be payable, unless Congress comes up with a solution.
Connecticut beneficiaries may face the steepest losses should the trust fund be depleted, with an average monthly benefit cut of $556, according to June state-by-state estimates by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan organization that focuses on educating the public on fiscal policy issues. States with higher average benefits would see larger cuts, according to CRFB, whose analysis assumes a 24% across-the-board cut.
Social Security debate continues after Larson's loss
Leaders elected to serve in the Senate this November will be in office through early 2033, just after the projected late-2032 Social Security depletion date. The terms of House leaders elected in 2026 end in 2029.
During a July 28 debate with the other Democratic candidates, Larson said the Social Security 2100 bill will be "one of the first bills taken up" in the first 100 days of the next Congress.
"We will put Social Security in place and pay for it," Larson said.
Following the results of Tuesday's election, Social Security Works, which advocates for protecting and expanding the program, said it plans to continue to advocate for the changes Larson proposed.
"We will take the handoff of Congressman Larson's baton and honor his life's work by fighting harder than ever to make billionaires pay their fair share so we can protect and expand Social Security for everyone," Alex Lawson, executive director of Social Security Works, said in a statement.
Social Security Works' political action committee endorses candidates based on their platforms for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
During the candidates' debate, Bronin said Social Security 2100 failed to get out of committee under Larson's leadership when Democrats held the majority.
"To say that it's going to become law in the first 100 days of the next Congress when Donald Trump is in the White House, I think, is not being honest with voters," Bronin said.
Bronin said during the debate that he would be "proud to fight to protect Social Security" and that to change Social Security, it will be necessary to build a movement outside the walls of the Capitol.
"I think it would be good to have some younger champions of Social Security as part of that fight," Bronin said. "Because if we're going to be successful, we're going to need every American of every age recognizing that they've got a stake in this."
Bronin did not mention specific plans during the debate, but Bronin senior advisor Amanda Sands told CNBC via email that he "believes that part of the solution has to be lifting the cap so that higher earners pay more into Social Security, as a number of proposed bills would require."
District leadership to be decided on Election Day
In November, Bronin will oppose Republican candidate Amy Chai, a physician specializing in primary care and addiction medicine.
Chai told CNBC via email that she "strongly" opposes both Republican and Democratic platforms on Social Security.
Chai said her plan would keep the Social Security payroll tax cap and payroll tax rate from increasing, eliminate the employer portion of the self-employment tax and require government employees to participate in Social Security.
To address Social Security's funding shortfall, Chai said she would require the program's obligations to be funded before foreign aid is released.
"This is the FAIR way to deal with the Social Security tax," Chai wrote. "It is our money. We get it back. Period."