- The Indian Rupee recovers its early losses against the US Dollar on likely RBI's intervention.
- US President Trump denies reports claiming Iran sanctions relief by Washington.
- The Fed is expected to hike interest rates again in October.
The Indian Rupee (INR) recovers its early losess after sliding to a fresh two-month low against the US Dollar (USD) and closed flat on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair closes flat at around 95.98 after rectreating from the day's high of 96.13.
The pair gives back early gains on likely US Dollar sales by state-run banks, most likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), helped limit the local currency's fall, traders said, Reuters reported.
Earlier in the day, the pair traded firmly as the Indian currency underperformed due to fears of persistent energy supply disruption. Oil prices remain firm as United States (US) President Donald Trump has pushed back hopes of near-term diplomacy with Iran.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high-oil-price environment.
Trump rejects claims of sanctions relief for Iran
On Monday, the oil price came under pressure after a report from Axios showed that Washington has agreed to roll back sanctions on Iran and release frozen Iranian funds in return for concrete Iranian steps on the nuclear program.
However, US President Donald Trump has denied the report through a post on Truth.Social. “I offered them NOTHING,” Trump wrote, adding that the story is a “Hoax”.
Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has confirmed that proposals for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a complete peace with the US are being discussed with Qatari mediators and Washington’s response will be received only through them. Araghchi added that the conditions stressed by Iran's Supreme Leader must be implemented for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen.
US JOLTS Job Openings data awaited
Financial markets remaining increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver more interest rate hikes this year is another key concern for the Indian currency. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an almost 70% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates at the October meeting.
Later in the day, investors will focus on the US JOLTS Job Openings data for August, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The data will likely have a meaningful influence on the Fed’s interest rate expectations.
The Job Openings report is expected to show that employers posted 7.23 million fresh jobs, marginally lower than the 7.271 million in July.
USD/INR Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 95.98, holding above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.67, which suggests a constructive near-term bias. The pair is consolidating near recent highs, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.12 stays in bullish territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, hinting that upside pressure could persist while the price remains supported above the short-term EMA.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA near 95.67. As long as spot defends this underlying demand zone, buyers are likely to retain control, while any decisive break beneath the EMA would signal a deeper corrective phase toward lower recent closes. On the upside, the pair aims to revisit the all-time high at around 97.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
JOLTS Job Openings
JOLTS Job Openings is a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month.
Read more.Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.