The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, culminating with an interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The Fed's next move — to hold or hike — remains a close call.
Markets expect the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged, but inflationary pressures arising from the war in Iran and AI bottlenecks could prompt officials to opt for a surprise hike. Bond traders placed 68.5% odds that the Fed will hold rates steady and 31.5% odds that it will hike, according to the CME Group's FedWatch on Tuesday morning.
The Fed's decision is opaque not only due to the balance of economic forces; it's also by design. As new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reforms the institution, he's looking to bring the Fed back to an era of less communication with markets on the path of policy.
Warsh has repeatedly said he wants a "good family fight" at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. He's likely to get that, as officials remain divided on whether to hike interest rates this year.