Bitcoin is trading at $80,441.66, up 1.2% today and 4.6% over the past week, after breaking above its 50-week moving average, a level that has historically marked turning points at the end of previous bear markets.
According to one chart analyst tracking Bitcoin’s structure, simply breaking above this level isn’t enough on its own. What matters more is whether Bitcoin can hold above it for a few weeks straight. Right now, momentum is pointing up, and the analyst says this could be the start of a bigger move higher, though nothing is guaranteed yet.
The analyst laid out three scenarios worth watching.
The first, and currently the most likely, is that Bitcoin completes one more high to form a clean five-part upward pattern, followed by a smaller three-part pullback. If that happens, it would be a strong signal Bitcoin is in an uptrend rather than just bouncing around, potentially opening the door to a run toward $120,000 or higher. A similar, smaller version of this exact pattern played out back in July and August, before Bitcoin rallied further.
The second scenario is a deeper pullback, even down toward the $39,000 to $44,000 range, if the current upward move fails to hold higher ground after reaching a peak. The analyst was clear this wouldn’t be a disaster. Since the bigger, multi-year trend for Bitcoin still points upward, a drop that steep would be treated as a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign.
The third scenario looks further out. If Bitcoin does rally to new highs, it could eventually reverse into a sharper corrective move down, the exact opposite pattern of what’s happening now. The analyst warned that if this happens, people will likely turn overly bullish right before that reversal, similar to how everyone was overly bearish before this recent rally began.
Immediate support sits between $78,888 and $80,359, an important zone to hold if the short-term uptrend is going to continue. On the resistance side, $83,000 is the key level, with the true invalidation point for the more bearish alternative scenario sitting near $82,813.
The analyst said that this weekend’s weekly close matters a lot. Closing above the 50-week moving average, rather than below it as Bitcoin has done in recent weeks, would be a bullish signal and increase the odds of Bitcoin grinding higher toward those upper targets.
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