Australian Dollar remains stronger as China data beats forecasts

TradeNews USA US markets desk (2026-10-19): China's Q3 GDP grew 4.5% year-over-year, topping market expectations of 4.4%. September Retail Sales and Industrial Production in China both expanded faster… Primary source: original at FXStreet (fxstreet.com).

October 19, 2026 12:03 AM ET · FXStreet

China's Q3 GDP grew 4.5% year-over-year, topping market expectations of 4.4%.
September Retail Sales and Industrial Production in China both expanded faster than forecasted.
CME FedWatch Tool suggests that traders price in nearly an 84% chance the Fed keeps rates unchanged this month.

AUD/USD extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 0.6970 during Asian hours on Monday. The pair remains stronger as the Australian Dollar (AUD) holds ground following the release of key economic data from China, Australia’s close trading partners.

China’s economy expanded at a faster pace than expected in the third quarter, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growing by 4.5% year-over-year. This represents an acceleration from the 4.3% growth recorded in the second quarter and beat the market consensus forecast of 4.4%. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the Chinese economy expanded by 1.2% in Q3, picking up momentum from 0.9% in Q2 and exceeding expectations of 1.1%.

The stronger-than-expected economic performance was further supported by robust activity data for September. Chinese Retail Sales increased by 1.1% year-over-year, significantly outperforming the 0.5% growth expected by analysts and accelerating from 0.4% in August. Industrial production also gained momentum, climbing 5.5% year-over-year in September compared to a 5.4% forecast and 5.2% in the previous month.

The AUD/USD pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggles under fading expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in October. Market sentiment shifted after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke at an International Monetary Fund event on Friday, stating that he does not prejudge interest-rate decisions and offering no clear indication of whether the central bank will raise or hold short-term rates at its upcoming October 27–28 meeting.

Market expectations for a rate increase have dropped significantly. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in nearly an 83.9% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged later this month, a sharp rise from the 49% chance priced in just a month earlier.

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in China during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of China’s economic activity. The YoY reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.